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Bets on Maduro, Jesus reveal promise and risks of prediction markets

Prediction platforms pitch themselves as tools for insight, but eye-catching bets on real-world events are raising questions about access, integrity and regulation.

For every contract tied to a war or an election or a storm, there are scores hinging on whether the Atlanta Hawks beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night, what South Park characters will say in the next episode, or whether Jesus Christ will return in 2026. (Those who bet against the Lord’s return in 2025 cashed in last week.)