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That means predicting whether the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ two-week outlook — the definitive reference point for traders repricing risk around heating demand, renewable output and system tightness — is about to shift warmer or colder.
In winter, the Euro model has a documented cold bias over continental Europe at longer lead times, frequently correcting warmer as the date approaches, he said. “We would like to know if ForecastEdge is adding true skill or simply playing on top of this bias,” Pralungo said.
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