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So far this year, a lot of financing deals are actually coming back to banks from private credit. In the first quarter, almost $12b of debt previously from direct lenders was refinanced via the so-called broadly syndicated loan market, a channel dominated by banks. This was a sharp reversal of the opposite pattern in the prior two quarters.
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The bottom line is that megabanks with fee streams from investment banking and trading are likely to continue to outperform regional banks, whose interest-income prospects are uncertain at a time of shifting expectations on rates. Among S&P 500 banks, the top performers this year are Citigroup, Wells Fargo WFC -1.09%decrease; red down pointing triangle, JPMorgan and Bank of America.
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