Square, PayPal and other companies that process payments, make loans are bracing for a slowdown in retail GMV as covid keeps consumers from bars, restaurants and beauty salons.
Square makes the bulk of its revenue on fees based on the transaction volume at its small-business customers, which could suffer as more consumers spend less time outside their homes. In-store discretionary spending accounts for about $3 of every $5 in payments that Square processes, according to analysts at Bernstein Research. Square also earns fees on hundreds of millions of dollars of loans it makes to small businesses every quarter and sells to outside money managers, a business that is under threat if its customers can no longer qualify for credit.