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The IMF expects Asia to record zero growth for the first time in 60 years, as lockdowns bring service sectors to a halt, exports plunge, and companies and individuals stop spending. One Indian lending CEO said “Since the lockdown started, demand is down by 90% and lending now is down by 95%”.
Small and medium-sized enterprises and workers in the informal economy have been particularly hard hit. Asia-focused banks including, HSBC and DBS have taken greater provisions against bad loans, but alternative online lenders are worse off than their traditional competitors. Indonesian online lenders had an NPL ratio of 4.22% in March, according to data from financial regulator OJK, up from 3.65% in December, compared to 2.77% for traditional banks. “Most fintech companies provide smaller-sized loans for middle-low borrowers to fill the gap that banks could not reach. This cohort is unfortunately one of the most impacted by the pandemic,” said Markus Rahardja, of BRI Ventures, the corporate venture arm of state-owned Bank Rakyat Indonesia.
