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Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. People could use them to hedge against risk. Both Polymarket and Kalshi pitch themselves as sources of truth in a time of epistemic precarity. Detractors call prediction markets glorified gambling. Indeed, the vast majority of the volume on Kalshi is betting—or, as the company puts it, “trading”—on sports.
Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. People could use them to hedge against risk—by betting that a hurricane will hit, say, or that the US government will shut down—or simply to make better decisions in the face of uncertainty.
