So, based on our model, who doesn’t win? Surprise, but the host country doesn’t win (though they are next to last, only surpassed by Iran).  Neither do the usual suspects.  But in a World Cup that has 32 countries ranging from Latin America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, who does? In a close tournament of “least risky countries”, Denmark advances through the knock out rounds, ultimately edging out Sweden in the finals.  See the full results below.

https://underrated.sigmaratings.com/post/174866547961/using-soccer-to-explain-country-risk-mapping