A dollar invested in Goldman in 2010 would be worth just $1.60 today. A dollar wagered on the s&p 500 would be worth $3.60, and on JPMorgan Chase, $4.10. If Goldman’s reinvention fails it may ultimately have to do a deal. Uniting Wells Fargo and Goldman, for example, would create something more like JPMorgan Chase (and with a similar-sized balance-sheet).