US election betting markets have been having a moment. Relative newcomers Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting billions of dollars in trades, while the more established PredictIt continues to operate a few markets in the midst of a legal battle with the CFTC. However, betting markets have exhibited some strange behavior in the past few weeks, though, with the implied odds of a Trump presidency climbing in a way that didn’t track with polls or election models.
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Take political betting markets literally, not seriously
In other words, the market’s movement can contribute to the perception of a large Trump lead — at least in some parts of the internet and media. This could be beneficial to a pro-Trump partisan, or possibly to someone invested in adjacent markets that would be influenced by the perception of a likely Trump presidency.
