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To some degree, it’s true that prediction markets like Polymarket seem to be more accurate than predictive media headlines. After all, when enough money is at stake, people tend to be more truthful and serious. And the real-time element of the predictions market allows for dynamic updates on the possibilities of different outcomes, exactly like what a global news desk strives to do with reporting.
“Polymarket’s market pricing is interesting insight into the wisdom of the crowds and people’s perception of what is or is not likely to happen, which I think is really where Polymarket competes with the news,” said Tom Schmidt, a general partner at venture capital firm Dragonfly, which is a Polymarket investor. Op-eds, on the other hand, “are one person’s opinion and in many ways it’s better to get an average of the crowd,” he added.
